Fuel oil price: The winter dominates the current development

esyoil - fuel oil order and current fuel oil prices (openPR) - the short term upward trend is intact. Fundamentally it is supported mainly by cold temperatures in the USA and by an unexpectedly durable US economy. More strongly than the fundamental aspects the Charttechnik works. The trend accelerates itself. Each prognosis becomes long-term the farce in view of a trend mixture in different view periods. And also fundamentally concerning the price everything is open. The dollar is since in the middle of January in a lateral movement. Good economic situations on both sides of the Atlantiks neutralize the currency fluctuations.

Three weeks ago ago the continuous price rise begun it obtain the impression that at the oil market clear conditions prevail. One could do mine, it was missing somewhere at strength or fuel. That is however not like that. The camps are still more than sufficiently filled. Neither the past nor the low temperatures which can be expected can bring the supplies into a critical situation. So seen there is no reason for clearly rising prices. Even large speculators see that in such a way. Their positioning lies between bullisch and bärisch with a light overhang to Bäri.

The attempt of a reason for the recent price rise is the statement that it could have gone before too steeply downward. The exaggeration is now again dissolved. To come out a price level between 60 and 65 dollar for crude oil should. That would correspond then to one around extreme values settled middle level of the latter one and a half years. And it fit the supply numbers, if one sets these in relation at the prices in the period mentioned.

Fundamentally adjusted dealers call the problems in Nigeria and in the Iraq apart from the winter weather and the good economic situation as reason for the price rise gladly as well as the again warmed up atomic controversy with Iran. If one leads these arguments into the field, one in addition, the inability of the OPEC must call for price influence by quantity adjustment. This circumstance should keep the prices deep.

With the fundamental aspects associate very with difficulty estimatable topics like the political stability of important supplier countries, the development of the climate also with expecting disasters, the development of the world economy with possible break-downs, the development of the oil and gas offer with at least in the coming years with expecting record values and the development in the industrial nations regarding their efficiency efforts. Depending upon composition of the factors thereby extremely bullische in addition, extremely bärische constellations can come out. A forecast of the price history to meet, was rarely so heavy, since the market is in one as unstably felt situation, which permits tendentious extreme excursions.

In a long-term view of the Preischarts the following picture results: The five-yearly opinion shows an upward trend. The two-year opinion goes rather toward Seitwärtstrend with extreme excursions and an average value between 60 and 65 dollar for the barrel crude oil as well as between 550 and 600 dollar for the ton gas oil.

This morning the gas oil price stands somewhat more deeply than last night. The ton costs 522.25 $. The tendency points further upward.

Our fuel oil prices cancelled their January decrease meanwhile. The price ascent is approximately a mirror image of the price descent. One could assume on basis of a long-term view that on the current level a calming of the price movement occurs. This acceptance is however highly speculative. Strong reasons for price trends are missing at present. The being nominal oh question is infinitesimal small. The purchase terms were recently better. They are however still acceptable.

06.02.07

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Telephone 04131-2243747

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